Quote:Thailand Stresses Use of N. Energy

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- Nuclear energy will no longer be considered an alternative fuel for Thailand's energy development over the next 15 years, but should be considered an essential source and part of a concrete economic development plan for the country, Thailand's Energy Ministry officials said.

The ministry yesterday held a second hearing for the 15-year Power Development Plan (PDP), from 2007 until 2021, at the Army Club. It had cancelled the first hearing at Siam City Hotel in February after facing a mass protest from 600 people opposing the construction of power plants, particularly coal-fired ones, in Prachuap Khiri Khan province.

Around 300 people, including academics, investors, bankers, and some environmentalists, participated in the hearing yesterday with military police providing tight security. No protesters appeared.

The ministry and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) proposed nine options for the hearing, compared to the three they had intended to present at the first hearing.

The nine plans are based on three assumptions of power-demand forecast - base case, high case and low case. Each of the cases contains three options, depending on levels of projected power demand over the next 15 years.

The base case sets new electricity capacity required over the next 15 years of 31,790 megawatts (MW), the high case calls for 36,790 MW, and the low case projects 27,430 MW.

In the first hearing, only one of the proposed options called for nuclear power project development but in the new proposal, all nine feature nuclear projects with capacity of 4,000 MW, half of which would come online in 2020 and the other half in 2021. All of the plans contain coal-fired power projects, with total capacities ranging from 2,100 to 21,000 MW depending on power-demand assumptions.

Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand said the government proposed nuclear power as a concrete plan for Thailand's future power development since, eventually, the country could not avoid relying on such energy, particularly in the face of mounting concern over global warming.

''If we make the decision today, it doesn't mean we can develop a nuclear project tomorrow. It requires at least seven years to prepare staff, technology, infrastructure, and legal conditions, and another six to build it,'' he said.

Without nuclear energy, said Dr Piyasvasti, it would be difficult for electricity supply developments to meet future demand, which increases by 1,400 MW per year on average.

Natural gas makes up 70% of the fuel used for power generation in Thailand, a figure officials consider too high.

The country's natural gas reserves will be used up within 30 years while hydropower capacity is limited and coal-fired plants face strong protests. Renewable energy must be promoted but it can hardly be counted on as a mainstream source.

''If the Thai people agree that Thailand should have a nuclear power plant, building only one plant is not worthwhile. Three or four plants are more appropriate to achieve an economy of scale,'' he said.

Many Asian countries have turned to nuclear power, he said. Vietnam has started developing four nuclear plants while Indonesia has decided to begin a project. China, South Korea, Japan and India all use nuclear power.

''The private sector is welcomed to develop a nuclear power but in the pioneering stage, Egat is the most ready,'' he said.

Dr Piyasvasti said the PDP was not unchangeable. ''It's like a newspaper operation. Even though the deadline for printing was set, if there is a coup, the deadline can be extended,'' he noted.

Fars News Agency April 4, 2007

Why am I not surprised to have the official news agency of Iran reporting so exclusively about Thailand's energy issues - right at this time?
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Quote:Is Thailand ready for nuclear power?

ROMKAEW BROEHM

In its 2007 Power Development Plan (2007 PDP), the Energy Policy and Planning Office (EPPO) lays out an option to build nuclear power plants capable of generating approximately 5,000 megawatts to serve the growing demand for electricity in Thailand.

This idea is not new. Thailand has been attempting to build nuclear energy facilities for more than 35 years. As with past efforts, the government's latest attempt will likely face public opposition. Indeed, on Feb 7, a public hearing was cancelled due to protests, although another meeting on Tuesday of this week went ahead without incident.

According to the EPPO, both peak and overall demand for electricity in Thailand will grow at an annual rate of more than 5% from 2007 through 2021. By 2012, Thailand will need approximately 2,300 MW of new capacity and another 30,000 MW by 2021. The essential question is: where will Thailand get its energy? Which fuel-based technologies are best?

With high natural gas prices exceeding $6 per mmbtu (million British Thermal Units), coal becomes the technology of choice for new power plants. In the PDP's Least-Cost Planning Option (LCP Option), 21,700 MW of coal-fired capacity is relatively more competitive than natural gas-fired power plants.

However, it is not clear whether the LCP study has taken the (opportunity) cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions into account. According to an MIT study, a 500 MW coal-fired power plant produces approximately three million tons per year of CO2. Although Thailand has endorsed the Kyoto Climate Change Protocol on Greenhouse Gas Emissions, the government has not adopted policies to reduce CO2 emissions.

Placing a significant "green tax" on CO2 emission would make investments in clean coal (such as integrated gasification combined-cycle plants) and nuclear power more cost effective.

Since January 2005, the market price for CO2 in EU, for example, has ranged from $12 per tonne to as high as $35 per tonne. According to a Brattle Group study, when the CO2 price exceeds $30 per tonne, nuclear power plants become more economically attractive. EPPO proposes to build 5,000 MW of nuclear power plants by 2021 in its Option 3.

The popularity of nuclear power technology has undergone a revival across the globe. It comes at the time when global natural gas and oil prices are volatile, global warming issues are a growing concern, and fear of becoming energy-dependent on other countries is increasing. For all these reasons, building a nuclear power plant becomes a viable long-term option.

Throughout the world, there are currently 27 new nuclear power plants under construction, for a total generating capacity of 21,810 MW. To mention a few: three in China with a total capacity of 3,000 MW, two in Taiwan (2,600 MW), one in Japan (866 MW), and eight each in India and Russia with a total of 3,600 MW and 3,375 MW, respectively.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is expecting to receive as many as 30 new nuclear reactor licence applications in the near term. Despite many problems in the early part of the nuclear age, US nuclear plants have greatly improved in efficiency and safety since the 1990s. Their average capacity factor exceeds 85% per year.

But is Thailand up to the task? The jury is still out whether it could and should join the international nuclear energy bandwagon. Many questions are unanswered:

- Does Thailand have the capital needed to construct and operate nuclear power plants? Some studies have shown that the overnight construction cost of nuclear power plants ranges from $1,500 per kW to as high as $2,500, not to mention possible construction cost overruns. Additional funds will also be needed for operating and maintaining plants and nuclear decommissioning. Uranium prices are likely to rise between two to four times in response to growing world demand.

- Will there be a role for the private sector in building a nuclear power plant? The private sector provides efficiency and shifts investment burdens from the state. But Thai energy policy must be clear in its direction and offer incentives to attract such large sums of investment. A policy such as a tax credit may be utilised to spur investments, instead of imposing a new energy tax on new power plants being built [Bangkok Post, Feb 26, 2007]. A property tax should be considered as a way to fund community development.

- Will there be any standards in place to deal with spent fuel and nuclear waste? Spent fuel can be reprocessed to recover uranium and plutonium for re-use and to reduce the volume of high-level waste for disposal.

- How can the Thai government ensure that the fuel obtained from reprocessing will not be used for weapons? Does Thailand have a plan to create a regulatory body that will ensure nuclear safety and radiological protection? What are our waste-disposal policies, considering that nuclear high-level waste disposal is a significant political problem that no country has yet solved?

- Will there be any regulatory body that is responsible to oversee the construction and operation? Given the Suvarnabhumi Airport debacle, it is imperative to have a rigorous inspection programme for both during the construction and after the plants are in operation to ensure quality and safety.

To successfully address these questions, the Thai government will need a clear energy policy that sends the right signal to investors, in particular, human capital that not only understands the technical side of building and operating nuclear power plants, but also is able to communicate effectively with the public to ensure their safety.

Bangkok Post April 5, 2007
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I know nothing about Nuclear power but I've often wondered why Thailand does not make more use of solar power. They are in a perfect location for it. It easy to install and not that costly to install.

lukamar Wrote:I know nothing about Nuclear power but I've often wondered why Thailand does not make more use of solar power. They are in a perfect location for it. It easy to install and not that costly to install.

The oil company JSX Energy is currently doing tests on one of their petroleum concessions in the Northwest for the feasibility of such a project. They expect results of that study in about three months.

The Northwest is the driest part of the country with an above average number of solar hours. The company estimates that a 10 MW system there would generate a cash flow of 10 million US-dollars annually including the freeing of coal.

The thai government does support all forms of renewable energy and has informed about several initiaties recently. Under the new plan solar energy is entitled to receive the highest state subsidy per kilowatt hour, what makes solar energy competitive with other energy sources for the first time.

reported after http://www.iwr.de/re/iwr/07/04/0204.html
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