Thai economy to grow 3.5-4% with oil price pressure

BANGKOK, May 12 (TNA) – A leading banker said the Thai economy is likely to grow more slowly, in the range of 3.5-4 per cent this year, if global oil prices hovers over US$80 a barrel.

KASIKORNBANK President Prasarn Trairattanaworakul also predicted that the Bank of Thailand will soon hike the benchmark 14-day repurchase rate by a quarter of a percentage point in line with the US Federal Reserve Board and this will make commercial banks in Thailand adjust their rates upward by a quarter to half a percentage point.

Speaking on current growth trends, Dr. Prasarn said the BoT projects the Thai economy to grow at between 4–4.5 per cent this year if oil prices remain at US$80 a barrel. Any further rise in oil prices above the US$80 per barrel range can push Thailand's GDP growth down to the range of 3.5-4 per cent.

In any case, KASIKORNBANK stays committed to its business goal of increasing lending by 6-9 per cent this year.

Regarding interest rates, Dr. Prasarn said the Bank of Thailand is likely to increase the benchmark RP 14-day rate by at least 0.25 per cent, bringing the rate to 5 per cent. Thereafter, commercial banks are expected to increase rates in a move that will place lending rates at 8-8.5 per cent across the board. However, savings rates will vary depending on the liquidity situation of individual banks.

Excess liquidity within the banking system increased by Bt33 billion (US$875 million) since the start of this year, with Bt17 billion (US$450 million) held by big commercial banks and Bt15 billion (US$398 million) among smaller banks.

The banks are now investing this excess amount in the financial market where returns are higher than the current 5 per cent savings rates.

TNA
May 12, 2006