Possibly a coup for the better

By Greg Sheridan

September 21, 2006 12:00am

AN Australian businessman recalls one of his first visits to Bangkok several decades ago. He was riding in a chauffeur-driven car with a senior official from a state company. The car passed some soldiers.

"Ah, yes," said the Thai businessman, "in Thailand we have military coups on the first Tuesday of every month. But only at 11am and they must be over by lunchtime."
It's a long time since Thais were so used to coups. It is 15 years since the last one and Thailand and all who wish the country well would have hoped that the era was past.

There is so much to like about Thailand. It is in so many ways such a model of reasonableness, friendliness, effective government and economic progress that the sight of soldiers patrolling the streets of Bangkok again is deeply disturbing.

Yet there are reasonable grounds for thinking that this coup could work out more or less OK.

Part of the analytical problem is that deposed Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is such a complex and contradictory figure.

Thaksin won elections that were legitimate and democratic. Therefore he should not be driven from office by soldiers. Further to Thaksin's defence, he ran a Government that did a lot of good things.

He was a good friend to Australia and got on well with John Howard. He oversaw steady economic expansion. This year the Thai economy has been growing at about five per cent.

Democratic legitimacy and sustained economic growth are a good double for any prime minister. And yet in many ways Thaksin is the author of his own demise, and it may be that this demise is necessary for Thailand to move forward.

For Thaksin had managed to put himself at loggerheads with three pillars of Thai society and political power: the people of Bangkok, the King and the army.

The causes of this alienation do not reflect well on Thaksin.

Under his Government, corruption was widespread.

More particularly, Thaksin had deeply affronted the citizens of Bangkok by the way he sold his family firm, Shin Corp, to a Singapore Government-controlled company in a multibillion-dollar transaction.

There is no suggestion that the Singapore Government, or the Singapore corporation involved, have done anything wrong. Nor has any illegality been proved about the transaction itself. The transaction was, however, highly irregular and highly advantageous to Thaksin.

Whatever the technicalities of the transaction prove to be, it looked like a massive conflict of interest for a prime minister to be acting this way.

There is a fundamental split in Thai society between Bangkok, which is a sophisticated city, and the countryside, where policy matters less in determining election results than regional affiliation and, at times, even vote-buying practices.

There is an old saying that Thai governments are made in the countryside and unmade in Bangkok. This is what happened to Thaksin.

In the end, he totally lost the respect of the citizens of Bangkok, even though he maintained the support of the countryside.

As a result, in April this year there were huge anti-Thaksin demonstrations. Finally, even the King, the revered and much-loved Bhumibol Adulyadej, intervened to bring the earlier crisis to a close.

In the countryside, especially the north, the citizens are undoubtedly more fond of their King than their Prime Minister.

But the King tries to be as neutral as possible in Thai politics, only intervening when absolutely necessary.

The signals of disapproval that he sent out about Thaksin therefore were subtle and restrained. They were clear enough in Bangkok, but less clear in the countryside.

In any event, it became impossible for Thaksin to continue.

Yet, analysts say, he may not have wanted to formally step down from the position of Prime Minister because of what a future Thai government might decide to do about -- and with -- the proceeds of the sale of Shin Corp.

Other Thaksin family assets may also be under threat.

Thaksin had also fatally fallen out with the military.

This was over two issues.

One was his determination to appoint his own loyalists to senior positions within the military in this year's round of promotions.

This, of course, is the right of a democratic government.

But, given how much corruption flourished under Thaksin's Government, there was good reason to fear what the consequences of these appointments might be.

Although the promotions round was the main cause of the alienation of the military, there was another issue of much greater importance.

Thaksin has made a spectacular mess of handling the Islamist insurgency gripping the southern provinces of Thailand.

This insurgency is exceptionally shadowy and difficult to understand but informed sources suggest that since the beginning of 2004 about 1700 people have died in the conflict.

At the weekend, terrorist bombings in southern Thailand killed four people and injured 60.

They represented a departure from previous practice because they seemed to target tourists and occurred outside the three provinces that have been the centre of insurgent activity.

However, the best regional intelligence assessment is that the insurgents of southern Thailand do not co-operate with Jemaah Islamiah, al-Qaeda or any other global jihadist group.

They are Islamists but they are nationalists first and there is a lot of other stuff going on as well: criminality, personal disputes, corruption and so on.

Notwithstanding last weekend's bombings, it is still believed that the Muslim terrorists of southern Thailand are not targeting Westerners, are not integrating their struggle into global jihadism and are not moving to targets elsewhere in Thailand -- such as Bangkok or Phuket -- that could severely damage the Thai economy.

The Thai military had a good handle on all this until a few years ago when Thaksin, in an act of wilful stupidity, abolished the mechanisms of local consultation that had built up over many years, when the conflict had subsided to much lower levels of violence.

The Thai army, led by General Sondhi Boonyaratkalin - coincidentally a Muslim - wants to try to re-create a political dialogue with the insurgents and try to address the legitimate grievances that the insurgents have exploited.

Thaksin, in contrast, was determined to pursue a gung-ho, force and only force approach that was ineffective and was making things worse.

This may have been just arrogance on the part of Thaksin and his advisers, although some analysts speculate that it was a way of distracting attention from his own problems. In any event, it was exceptionally dangerous.

The Thai military has promised it will soon have new elections and a return to full democracy. Presumably Thaksin will not be allowed to contest these elections.

The military has some support and advice from the King's advisers on the Privy Council. Most important, the King has said nothing against the army.

The Bangkok public is likely to be ambivalent about this: glad to be rid of Thaksin, unhappy at military rule, probably willing to allow the interim government enough legitimacy to oversee a transition to a new democratic dispensation.

No democrat can support a military coup but Thai coups are the gentlest in the world, and this one may conceivably provide a path to something better.

News Limited

Thailand's coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said in a televised statement that King Bhumibol Adulyadej had endorsed him as the head of the interim governing council.

"For the sake of the nation's peace and order, the king has appointed General Sonthi Boonyaratglin to become the leader of Military Council for Political Reform," said the statement read on national television.

"People should be calm and all government officials should follow General Sonthi's orders," said the statement broadcast on all TV channels.

RELATED LINKS

* VIDEO: Peace holds
* US disappointed by coup
* Thai people back to work
* Howard condemns coup

Thailand's new military ruler pledged earlier to resign from power in two weeks and restore democracy within a year, after sweeping aside Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a bloodless coup.

General Sonthi, who orchestrated Tuesday night's coup while the premier was in New York, said Thaksin had been pushed out in line with the wishes of the people after months of political turmoil. He added that he hoped to hold new elections in October 2007.

After announcing the coup Tuesday night, Sonthi and his generals met with the revered king, who in the past has given his tacit blessing to replace unpopular leaders and restore order in times of crisis.

The statement later Wednesday said: "General Sonthi has briefed the king that the administration of Thaksin Shinawatra has caused conflict among groups of people, and that independent state bodies could no longer work properly."

Source:nineMSN