THAILAND'S FUTURE

Military will keep 'pulling the strings'

Army likely to retain close oversight of political situation, Chai-anan suggests

The military's top brass will continue to pull the strings from behind the political stage for at least two or three years after they step down from official posts later this year, observers said yesterday.

Veteran political scientist Chai-anan Samudvanija told a seminar on Thailand's future path held by Chulalongkorn University's Sasin Graduate Institute of Business Administration that democratic development would slow during such a period, but technocrats and bureaucrats would become much more politically powerful.

Anek Laothamatas, a former leader of the Mahachon Party, said the military would be the predominant factor in politics for quite some time after the Council of National Security, which staged the September 19 coup, wound itself down.

"The military's top brass will develop a new kind of relationship with political parties and politicians. They will be the key factor, even though their role will be informal.

"All politicians will revive connections with the men in green. Parties will have to pay attention to what the top brass think or say. They won't be entirely separate entities anymore.

"Our democracy will be half-baked [once again], but we hope we'll gradually achieve enough reforms to get full-fledged democracy," Anek said.

Chai-anan said it was unlikely we would see any democratic reform during the Surayud government's term.

Political parties will have no choice but to adapt to the post-coup environment, he said, adding that government measures based on the sufficiency-economy concept would also replace populist policies over the next two or three years.

Anek said the Kingdom would have to find a new balance of the universal values of democracy in a Thai context.

What he called "reconciliatory" politics would also become another challenge.

"In this sense, we need to reconcile the inevitable forces of globalisation with the royal initiatives on the sufficiency economy, or we need to reconcile populist policies [which many poor and rural Thais remain fond of] with what I call the progressive welfare movement.

"Reconciliation is indispensable, because some of these goals are more or less conflicting. One of the most obvious sets of conflicting goals is that we aspire to have a full-fledged democracy, and yet the patronage system still prevails in our society," he said.

Supavud Saicheua of Phatra Securities, a major stock brokerage, said foreign investors were now looking forward to the general election here.

Political risks should peak next quarter, when the dissolving of any political parties for election violations would be decided by the Constitution Tribunal, he said.

Foreign investors must soon factor in whatever the Thai military's top brass were thinking or would do, he added.

Nophakhun Limsamarnphun

The Nation

And another one.

Bangkok Post

General news >> Friday March 02, 2007   
CNS moves to tighten army's grip
Officers to be deputy governors for security

POST REPORTERS

Sonthi: Antidote to old power cliques  

The Council for National Security yesterday unveiled plans to appoint military officers as deputy governors for security affairs in all 76 provincial administrations across the country, an army source said. The CNS was also working to double the tenure of village heads from five to 10 years, the source added.

Both were seen as efforts to ensure military power in the provinces and shore up the clout of the Sept 19 coup leaders.

Vithoon Chartpatimapong, chairman of Nakhon Ratchasima provincial administrative organisation, said the plan to appoint security deputy governors was unnecessary and would be a financial burden.

Wittaya Kaewparadai, deputy secretary-general of the Democrat party, said the move was probably aimed at pushing officials out of ''neutral gear''.

The source said CNS chairman Sonthi Boonyaratkalin spoke of the plans during a private meeting with 40 tambon and village heads yesterday.

Already, some security deputy governors had been sent to Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces on the orders of the Internal Security Operations Command (Isoc), which Gen Sonthi chairs in his capacity as army chief, the source said .

In Songkhla, a security deputy governor had taken charge of four districts _ Chana, Thepha, Saba Yoi and Na Thawee.

They could begin working right away while waiting for their appointments to be endorsed by Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, the source said.

The plans call for military officers with the ranks of colonel or major-general to be named deputy governors for security.

Gen Sonthi presented the scheme as an antidote to the movements of ''old power cliques'' and instigators of political ''undercurrents'' including a series of arson in several provinces. The CNS chief wanted to give more power to tambon and village chiefs so they could assist the Isoc more, said the source.

Gen Sonthi first floated the idea of doubling the terms of tambon and village heads late last year as a move that would bridge the gap between local people and state authorities.

Proponents of decentralisation who consider provincial governors, and tambon and village heads as tools of the state were expected to oppose the plans.

Isoc's predecessor, the Communist Suppression Operations Centre, posted representatives to provincial administrations during the Cold War. But specialists said the idea of appointing military people as deputy governors for security was new.

Mr Wittaya said ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra mulled the idea early in his administration, thinking it could help the suppression of drugs and illegal immigration.

Paisal Prakarnrat, chairman of the association of tambon and village heads, said his group had asked Gen Sonthi to lobby charter drafters to guarantee independence of these local leaders.

Mr Paisal said the instigators of political undercurrents were mainly staff of local administrative bodies who served politicians and their interests.

The security deputy governors would likely counter the power of provincial governors who tend to have political affiliations.

The extension of tenure for tambon and village chiefs would hold in check the power of local administrative bodies reputed to have links with political groups, some operating as their canvassers.

The former ruling Thai Rak Thai party expanded their clout by introducing a system of CEO governors.

Mr Vithoon asked the government to clearly define the roles of local administrative organisations, and of tambon and village heads to prevent divisiveness. He suggested they be made responsible for security, law and order while the local administrative bodies take charge of development work.

''Both of them represent the local government system. They should work and help each other,'' he said.

© Copyright The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd. 2007
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The problem of modern democracies is that you need people educated enough to make use of their rights. So will it already work that way for Thailand? The educated had problems with the last government, the less educated loved the PM for his populism and smiles on TV. How to achieve a balanced democracy in Thailand?
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Korat Info - Korat Forum - Korat Photo Album - ......

KoratCat Wrote:The problem of modern democracies is that you need people educated enough to make use of their rights. So will it already work that way for Thailand? The educated had problems with the last government, the less educated loved the PM for his populism and smiles on TV. How to achieve a balanced democracy in Thailand?

Hello KoratCat,
I am not exactly sure what you mean by "educated enough to make use of their rights"?

The votes of less educated people are just as valid as those of the more educated folks in a true democracy.

Though from comments by coup supporters on other boards, some claim the peasant vote should be invalid because they are relatively poorly educated and had been subjected to a degree of media censorship by the previous government.

My rebuttal to the above is that in a free democratic society people of all socio-economic groups tend to vote for the candidate who offers them the best deal. And as for media censorship and media bias, one only has to look at the current situation to see that things have indeed become worse rather than better under a military government.

In closing I would like to add that manipulation of the media for political gain (directly or indirectly) is not unique to Thailand.
Take for instance USA where the vast majority of voters are well educated. Yet those people elected their current President and took their country to war on the basis of a pack of lies which went unchallenged by the media at the time.