Quote:Party execs most likely to get the chop on May 30

Securities firm says parties less likely to be dissolved because it might stir up unrest

In two weeks' time, one of the most important political events since the September coup will occur and shape the immediate future of Thailand. Virtually every eye will be focused on the Constitution Court on May 30 as it delivers its verdicts on whether the two most powerful parties, the Democrat and Thai Rak Thai, are guilty of electoral fraud.

At issue is whether the two should be dissolved if found guilty. For the court, as it assesses the evidence, there can be no room for error. It has to consider whether a conviction is in the best interests of a country, which has been battered by political instability and an economic slowdown.

Opinion has flowed from all directions about the likely outcome. On Friday, securities company UOB Kay Hian came out with some interesting research. While citing that it is difficult to predict the outcome, it was more than likely to be a compromise.

UOB Kay Hian says politics will continue to destabilise Thailand over the coming months. And that was probably why compromise could be expected from the court.

In the worst-case scenario in which both parties are considered guilty of electoral fraud and dissolved, it said this would lead to unrest as grassroots supporters of the two parties would not be likely to accept the verdict. Self-serving politicians would move in and stir them up, and before long there would be protests against the court's ruling, the government as well as the Council for National Security (CNS).

This outcome could very well lead to the failure of the national referendum on the new constitution in early September, and open up the possibility of another coup to counter unrest and the setting up of a military government.

"If the existing government is replaced by a military government, we will have the Bangkok elite joining demonstrations and causing bloodshed. We strongly believe this is the most unlikely scenario as it would plunge Thailand politically and economically into a deep hole," the securities company said.

Remarkably, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index plunged 7 points on Wednesday morning immediately after a rumour that Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont would be replaced to pave way for military control. The selling stopped after Surayud insisted later on in the day that he would not resign.

Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) executive Charl Kengchon said in an interview with UOB Kay Hian that he remained very concerned about the political situation and believed the national referendum on the new constitution would surely be shot down if the two political parties were to be dissolved by the Constitution Tribunal.

He said politicians might also boycott the next election if the country's two biggest political parties were dissolved. Therefore, a compromise was definitely the best answer for the country otherwise continued political instability could only ensure protracted policy uncertainty.

The most likely scenario as far as the securities company was concerned is for a compromise to be reached in which the parties are not dissolved. Instead, the guilty executives should face bans from politics for five years. In the case of Thai Rak Thai, there are two key executives, Thamarak Isarangura and Pongsak Ruktapongpisal, alleged to have been principal players in this messy business.

Prosecution evidence and defence rebuttals have suggested that not all of the party's executives were aware of any wrongdoing. The ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra had also made a "strong argument" distancing himself from the two executives.

As for the Democrat Party,

secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban appeared a possible culprit lined up for punishment as prosecution witnesses had all pointed fingers at him.

The reasons why UOB Kay Hian believed the second scenario had more potential were:

l Grass-roots supporters of the two big political parties would be appeased. Thus there would be no mass demonstrations.

l Party executives, if involved in electoral fraud, would be
punished, sending a "powerful message" that guilty politicians are not above the law.

l Party executives not involved in the case would not be punished by default, a further sign that the judiciary di not making rulings in favour of any groups, particularly the CNS.

l The government would continue to function and could hold the general election at the end of the year.

l The CNS would exit politics as promised without having to plunge themselves deeper into problems relating to anti-coup demonstrations.

l Another coup, or possible bloodshed, would not be likely, and the promised general election would take place.

It would seem that many Thais hope for the second scenario, as the repercussions from the first could be harsh for an already fragile political and economic environment.

TheNation

Quote:WILL DEMOCRATS BE THE SACRIFICIAL LAMB?

Leaks ahead of May 30 ruling suggest junta may prefer both top parties to be dissolved


''Possibly true" verdicts against the two main political parties - Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the Democrats - were "intentionally" leaked to the press on Monday, ahead of the May 30 judgement day.


Thai Rak Thai legal expert Vichit Plangsrisakul was quoted in the first report as saying he had heard that the nine-member Constitution Tribunal would eventually dissolve both parties - by a 6-3 vote in the TRT case, and 5-4 in the case of the Democrats.


However, he dismissed the report yesterday as wrong, saying he had not spoken to any reporters as quoted.


He believes the Council for National Security (CNS) was behind the leak in order to check the public reaction if dissolving both parties would be the best solution for the post-CNS political field.


As the leak succeeded in making news headlines across the mainstream media, the outcome has had a significant impact.


Vichit apparently intends to send a "complaint" to Thai Rak Thai supporters, who still have faith in deposed premier Thaksin Shinawtra, that the party would finally be disbanded regardless of the legal process.


Because CNS chief General Sonthi Boonyaratglin and some ministers have continually said that the public will soon see the final chapter of the Thai Rak Thai, the leak is aimed at vindicating the party's allegation that the verdict was reached as a result of the junta's plan, not the justice system.


Moreover, it rubs in the point that the party's dissolution was the part of a conspiracy to overthrow Thaksin, following the mass movements of his opponents and the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD).


The assumption is based on a rule added to the dissolution cases shortly after the coup that, if a party is dissolved, its executives will be banned from assuming political office for five years. Thaksin and many TRT heavyweights are included in that new condition.


Hence, the hearings involving a number of witnesses and documents will only be a "rite" to build legitimacy for the junta to "execute" the Thai Rak Thai and Thaksin.


If Vichit did speak to the press on Monday, he has thrown a bombshell on the junta and the tribunal.


His message is that "both parties" will be dissolved.


But a verdict which disbanded only the Thai Rak Thai would convey to its supporters and the public that the judges had been swayed to change their mind at the last minute in favour of its opponents.


Furthermore, a ruling against the Thai Rak Thai would also only vindicate its allegation that the Democrat Party is an ally of the junta, and the PAD, another of Thaksin's bitter enemies.


The Thai Rak Thai accuses the Democrats of intending to boycott the national poll of April 2, 2006 in a bid to help their allies topple the elected TRT government.


The leak might aim to fuel the anti-CNS rallies led by the People's TV, which has continually gained momentum. Although PTV's key members - including former Thai Rak Thai MPs Veera Musigapong, Jatuporn Prompan and Jakrapob Penkair - are attempting to distance themselves from the party, the movement somehow turns into pro-Thaksin rallies, with more supporters taking part every week.


If, however, Vichit did not leak news of the alleged verdicts, he might be right about his assumption that the CNS did so with a reason in mind.


The junta might have wanted to "test the water" about what could happen in the aftermath of the Constitution Tribunal's verdicts on May 30 if the two main parties are disbanded, and what could be the best decision to conclude the historic cases?


It is apparent that CNS leaders are searching for a "safe landing" after seizing power from elected politicians and taking over the national administration. A typical stepping down would not be different from previous military juntas, which placed a rearguard to reduce the chances of revenge when an elected government replaced their rule.


History shows that extending military rule will finally lead to disaster and bloodshed. However, the CNS leaders find it risky to compromise with political heavyweights by joining the same party to win the next poll and form a coalition government.


Those politicians expected to win a number of House seats are former allies of Thaksin. They could switch sides if the balance of power shifts in favour of the former premier.


The CNS goal of dissolving the Thai Rak Thai will not be easy to achieve. The popularity of the junta and the Surayud government has fallen sharply. The public have begun questioning the junta's sincerity about returning power to the people.


General Sonthi is hesitant to promise that he will not become the prime minister in any circumstances.


In the meantime, the CNS-sponsored Constitution Drafting Committee is accused of paving the way for extended military rule after its members agreed to leave room for an appointed prime minister. Sonthi is said to be the favourite candidate for the seat.


Moreover, the call for Thaksin's return is getting louder as Surayud has failed to run the administration effectively, causing the economy to slump and the violence in the deep South to increase.


The junta is obviously in a dilemma. To get rid of Thaksin and his cronies permanently would be the best solution for the future of its leaders.


As unrest is expected if only the Thai Rak Thai is dissolved, they might have to sacrifice the Democrats as well, although they do not want to.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation

SIX DAYS TO GO: JUDGEMENT DAY

TRT is set for a fight on ban

Thaksin's political party gears up for heavy PR blitz, but denies it is putting pressure on court

A week before "Judgement Day" on the 2006 election fraud cases, Thai Rak Thai has stepped up preparations for being dissolved and launched a popularity campaign.

Tens of thousands of taxi drivers have been asked to turn on their headlights and mount red flags in support of the party.

About 100 former Thai Rak Thai MPs from the Northeast attended an urgent party meeting yesterday to be briefed about developments, as well as a worst-case scenario. They left the party headquarters with files and video CDs they are expected to use when explaining the party's fate and plans to their constituents.

"We have been talking to former MPs over the past few days to give them the correct understanding of the situation before the verdicts come on May 30," said Thai Rak Thai leader Chaturon Chaisaeng.

"We all agree that our strongest point is the election, so we will do the best we can to make sure nothing goes wrong before the promised election at the end of the year."

He said the party was "prepared" for the worst-case scenario - a dissolution verdict which could ban party executives from politics for five years. But Chaturon declined to reveal the plans, saying all details would be given on the day the judgement is handed down.

But over the next few days the party would step up its "campaign for justice", former Udon Thani MP Wichai Chaijitvanichkul said.

"Taxi clubs will be asked to have their members turn on headlights and mount red flags to express public love for justice," said Wichai, who was careful not to portray it as a campaign to pressure the Constitution Tribunal.

"The red colour represents the Thai nation, and we chose the taxi drivers because they have had strong connections with our party," he said. "This is not meant to defy the interim leadership. It will just give people who love our party a chance to express their clamouring for justice."

The party will set up a stage in front of its headquarters on May 30 for its members and followers to monitor the tribunal's rulings.

Party senior members insisted the plan was not meant to create trouble in the event of an order for TRT to be dissolved.

If dissolved, unaffected party members will seek to register a new party, but under the old "Thai Rak Thai" name. Opinions have been divided as to whether registering a new party under the old name is legally possible.

Meanwhile, police have moved to block 198 elephants and thousands of villagers mainly from the North and Northeast from entering Bangkok to protest the possible dissolution of ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's political party.

PTV channel, launched by former executives of Thai Rak Thai, and monks campaigning for Buddhism to be named as the state religion had earlier boasted they would bring 198 elephants to the court to protest against the verdict on the party's dissolution on Wednesday.

Bangkok Police Chief Lt-General Adisorn Nonsi said he would talk to the court today about blocking Chakraphet Road, because many people are expected to gather outside the Constitution Tribunal for the judgement.

About 800 police will throw a blanket of security around and inside the court. Checkpoints at entrances and exits will search for explosives and arms.

Adisorn said he had requested all concerned state agencies to ban animals being brought into Bangkok. He said that while he had sought cooperation from state agencies to prevent the movement of animals, he still feared some may violate the ban because the penalty was not harsh - just a Bt3,000 fine and a 15-day jail term.

"When the religious agency brought nine elephants to join the protest in Bangkok recently, traffic was heavily clogged. We cannot imagine how it would be if just 20 elephants were on the road, let alone 99 elephants," he said.

Security officials have been taking turns to man checkpoints on major highways leading to Bangkok to block villagers mobilised to join the protest if Thai Rak Thai is dissolved. Villagers in Nakhon Ratchasima and Buri Ram, the political stronghold of Newin Chidchob, are under close scrutiny.

Weerapol Sopha, an adviser to the Assembly of the Poor, said it was possible protesters would move against the government during the week because the fate of the "old power" was at stake. There was not only the possibility the party would be dissolved but assets may be confiscated. "It will be hard to block them. People who intend to go will have a way to evade the eyes of police and soldiers," he said.

Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva supported the move to broadcast live the court's reading of its verdict, saying it was one way to solve the problem of people turning up at the court, which could lead to turmoil.

Democrat Party chief adviser Chuan Leekpai said the party would respect the court's decision and would not cause political unrest, no matter what the verdicts were.

Thai Rak Thai is accused of financing small parties to run against it in the election as a way of getting around the rule that sets a minimum percentage of votes in constituencies where single candidates run unopposed.

The Democrat Party, which boycotted the election, is accused of conniving with the small parties to lure Thai Rak Thai into illegally funding them.

Chuan criticised Election Commissioner Sodsri Satayathum for saying that the parties, which may be dissolved, could not register a new party under the same name. He said he had consulted legal experts and they advised there was no ban. Chuan said Sodsri should focus on stopping vote-buying rather than trivial issues.

The Nation

Quote:Chaos expected after ruling

Govt ready to declare emergency in capital

POST REPORTERS

Boonrawd: Disoder is likely

The government is ready to declare an emergency decree in Bangkok, anticipating chaos when the verdicts in the party dissolution cases are handed down next Wednesday. Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas said the government has closely examined the situation and concluded that disorder is likely.

Gen Boonrawd expressed confidence that the Council for National Security (CNS) could control the situation during the absence of Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, who is scheduled to visit China from May 28 to 31.

If there are any untoward incidents, Gen Surayud would immediately fly back to Thailand, he said.

He said an emergency decree would be issued if the situation warrants it, but it would be the government and not the CNS that issues it.

It was the duty of police to control the groups of people which are expected to gather in Bangkok to show support for political parties which are facing the threat of dissolution.

Acting national police chief Seripisuth Temiyavej said security measures have been put in place to cope with possible violence on May 29, when individual judges will issue their opinions, and on May 30, when the Constitution Tribunal will issue its formal verdict.

He said police, soldiers and the city administration were joining forces to deal with any incidents during this period.

He urged people to stay at home, as the rulings would be broadcast on radio and television.

Metropolitan police chief Adisorn Nonsee said he did not expect any clashes between opposing sides as the Constitution Court and surrounding area could accommodate only 3,000 to 4,000 people at a time.

He did threaten action against mahouts if they brought their elephants to the city to join the protests, as has been rumoured.

Both the mahouts and their elephants would be arrested, he said.

Pol Lt-Gen Adisorn said five or six companies of police would be dispatched to the venues where demonstrators were expected to gather. All police leave had been cancelled during this period.

CNS chief Sonthi Boonyaratkalin yesterday met local leaders in Nakhon Ratchasima province, in what was seen as a bid to prevent demonstrators from travelling to Bangkok next week.

Speaking to more than 800 village heads and kamnans, Gen Sonthi urged local leaders and residents to unite, to join hands with the military and state agencies to protect the country.

He said he was not worried about reports that northeastern people may join anti-military rallies in Bangkok, saying over 70% of the country's soldiers hailed from the Northeast.

Sophon Supapong, a member of the National Legislative Assembly, urged the government to take legal action against people involved in corruption and vested interests.

He also called for the abrogation of legislation that promotes corruption _ such as the State Enterprises Corporatisation Act, which provides the framework for the conversion of state enterprise assets into capital _ and for more timely action to deal with the southern unrest.

Mr Sophon said the government had not made much progress in these areas in the eight months that it had been in power.

PM will be out of the country... Remember what happened last time... Disorder will come about if the majority of the population feels they and/or their representatives have been wronged.

Note to Junta - Happy people have never protested anything in the history of the world, people that are pissed off protest.