BURNING ISSUE

Full-scale political war set to start

The unofficial "truce" between embattled Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his opponents is over, and the parties are now back at war. The delight over the 60th anniversary celebrations of His Majesty the King's accession to the throne may soon be a thing of the past.

Tensions are back to cast a shadow over Thailand's political landscape. And the country faces the same question as before: Either Thaksin or who else?

The PM has lodged court actions against his detractors and controversially accuses a "charismatic figure" of plotting to topple the government.

He appears ready to strike back at his opponents, who have tried many ways to remove him from power, including a long campaign of rallies earlier this year.

The Administrative Court nullified the April 2 ballot, causing Thaksin to reverse his vow not to seek the premiership for a third term, and return as PM.

After a 7-week break - during which he vowed not to become prime minister of the new administration - he has resumed work as if he is not simply a caretaker but a full-time premier. He's back chairing Cabinet meetings, approving state plans and appointing officials.

On June 14, a day after the royal celebrations ended, Thaksin filed criminal and civil lawsuits against the Democrat Party and three newspapers. He claims they misled the public into believing his government caused damage to the country, that he sought to cheat in the election, return to power and take part in corruption. Thaksin has demanded Bt800 million in compensation for damage to his reputation.

Last Thursday he addressed senior bureaucrats and claimed a "charismatic figure" was plotting to overthrow him by unconstitutional means.

With Thaksin having thrown off the shackles, his opponents are about to do hit back. Another mass rally is planned this month with the same theme: "Thaksin must quit without conditions".

The anti-Thaksin movement does not him running in a new national poll. They are also worried about the Election Commissioners who have appeared to side with the government.

In the meantime, Thaksin's supporters have also begun to re-group and hold small rallies in the provinces to demonstrate their support. They have asked for confirmation that the new election, scheduled for October 15, will take place.

Samak Sundaravej, a pro-government critic and newly-endorsed senator, has also returned to attack government critics through a radio programme.

Samak suspended his TV and radio shows in February, after criticising Privy Council President General Prem Tinsulanonda for siding with anti-Thaksin groups. Samak's comments caused a public furore at the time. The Thaksin government was believed to have backed the veteran Samak.

Further uncertainty looms, as the Constitution Court must decide if TRT and the rival Democrat Party should be dissolved for violating election laws.

The dissolution of the two major parties could lead to widespread discontent among their supporters nationwide.

Violence could erupt if the election fraud complaints are not resolved promptly and a new administration put in place soon. The continuing uncertainty may even lead to increased public belief that a military coup might be the best way to resolve the political mess.

Weerayut Chokchaimadon

The Nation

Leave monarchy out of politics

The government yesterday appealed to its adversaries to stop dragging the monarchy into the political morass, saying nothing else could be more improper or divisive for society.

"The monarchy is above politics," government spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee said.

"When conflicts among social groups arise, they should give way to find solutions by themselves for the good of the country. It is totally inappropriate to exploit the monarchy to gain an upper hand over opponents."

On Wednesday, Sondhi Limthongkul, a leader of the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), called on the people to decide which side they stood on - for the monarchy or for caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Sondhi had claimed that Thaksin was challenging the monarchy by alleging last week that a "charismatic figure beyond the Constitution" was attempting to oust him from power.

Surapong said PAD had failed earlier in seeking a royally-sponsored premier after His Majesty the King called the idea undemocratic. Its leaders should have apologised and asked for royal forgiveness, but they had done nothing.

Sondhi's latest invoking of the monarchy was an attempt to drive a new wedge in society, Surapong said. All parties should know that several attempts to involve the monarchy in political conflicts in the past had ended in national crises, he said.

"We don't want to see history repeat itself," he said.

Surapong said Thaksin did not mean to say anything about the monarchy in his remark last week to senior government officials, so he had no need to clarify himself.

"Anyone attempting to involve the monarchy with the remark should be the one to be blamed," he added.

Thai Rak Thai's legal team insisted that the mysterious "charismatic figure" was actually the PAD, Democrat Party and other anti-government groups.

"We all know that they have been trying to topple the government for a long time," legal adviser Surachai Baochanya said.

Meanwhile, Surapong Towijakchaikul, leader of the Network of People's Power for Democracy, urged the police to check if legal expert Meechai Ruchuphan had insulted His Majesty following his article in which he interpreted Thaksin's "charismatic figure" remark. He said Meechai should be more careful with his words.

Meechai yesterday dismissed Surapong's claim that he had worked for the Thai Rak Thai government. He said he had worked on the government's legal affairs for many years, even before Thaksin assumed power five years ago.

"I work for the Office of the Council of State, which has advised every government since 1933," he said in an article on his website, Meechaithailand.com. "So nobody can claim that a councillor works for a particular government."

The Nation

Attorney-General asks Court to dissolve five parties

BANGKOK, July 6 (TNA) - Thailand's attorney general filed election fraud charges before the Constitution Court Thursday, asking it to dissolve the ruling Thai Rak Thai party and its main rival, the Democrat Party, over alleged election law violations in the April 2 snap poll nullified by the country's top court.

Atthapol Yaisawang, spokesman for the Office of the Attorney-General, told journalists he was confident that the justices will accept the case for judicial review.

Constitution Court secretary-general Paiboon Varahapaitoon said the justices will convene next Thursday to decide whether to accept the case for deliberation.

If accepted, the justices will meet to discuss the case and embark on what is expected to be a months-long process of investigation.

New elections have been tentatively scheduled for October 15, but caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has hinted that the new election could be postponed if needs stemming from legal wrangling arise.

The endorsement by the Attorney General was widely anticipated after an OAG fact-finding panel last month recommended that five parties, including the ruling Thai Rak Thai Party, the main opposition Democrat Party (Thailand's oldest, founded 60 years ago) and three minor parties, face prosecution for election law violations.

The Thai Rak Thai party is accused of two violations, including that it financed small parties to run against it in some constituencies in the April 2 general election to evade the minimum 20 per cent of eligible votes required by law for the candidate to win the election.

The opposition Democrat Party faces charges, including having allegedly financed smaller parties to accuse Thai Rak Thai of violating election law.

However, both parties have denied the charges.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra stood firm in contending that his Thai Rak Thai party should not be dissolved. He asserted earlier that his party had committed no mistake, and therefore, there were no grounds to justify the dissolution of his party.

Democrat party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva also denied all charges.

The three minor parties charged with having committed similar offences and also recommended for dissolution are the Progressive Democratic Party (Prachathipatai Kao Na), Pattana Chart Thai and the Thai Ground Party (Phean Din Thai).

TNA

Will it come to 'that'?

Nobody knows for sure, but one of the most sensitive questions in the unfolding political turmoil is no longer being discussed in whispers. The Political Desk takes a look at the possibilities and at how well equipped Thaksin Shinawatra is militarily to survive politically

The eventual survival or demise of Thaksin Shinawatra, the landslide product of Thailand's "democracy", might - just might - be decided by anything but.

Although no one wants to see it happen, the possibility of a military showdown to settle one of the biggest political conflicts in modern Thai history has risen above the "taboo" line. For one thing, Thai politics and the role of the military have been interwoven ever since the 1932 bloodless coup to move from absolute monarchy to democratic rule.

The Kingdom has seen a number of coups, counter-coups and failed attempts to usurp power. Unique in Thai history is that such military intervention can work both ways - to overthrow an elected government or to enable a leader to cling to power.

Since the 1980s, the military has learnt a valuable lesson, with many coup attempts either defeated or forced to abort. The armed forces were not so invincible when faced with the opposition of the people.

When everyone thought the military take-over was a thing of the past, a clique of Chulachomklao Class 5 graduates managed to overthrow the Chatichai Choonhavan government in 1990. This was the last successful coup to date.

A coup of another kind, one staged by the government, has a perfect record of success. In November 1971, the Thanom Kittikhachorn government overthrew itself in order to shut down Parliament and rule by military might.

After the promulgation of the 1997 Constitution, which came into existence following political reforms triggered by the 1992 bloodshed, soldiers kept to their barracks and stopped meddling in politics.

When the Thaksin Shinawatra administration came to power in 2001, democracy was in full bloom. But a subtle gesture took place: Thaksin's former classmates from the Pre-Cadet Class 10 lined up to present the prime minister with a gift of a gold necklace with an amulet.

The gift had to be returned because of a cap on the value of gifts a prime minister can receive, though not before sending out its message loud and clear. The game of dispensing military appointments in exchange for backing the government had resumed once again.

In Thaksin's first term, his former classmates filled many key positions in the armed forces. This coincided with speculation that military officers had to secure his blessing if they wanted to advance their careers.

For the past five years, Thaksin has rigorously denied - but failed to dispel doubts - that he meddled in the annual military reshuffles.

The Pre-Cadet Class 10 and officers seen as close to the Thai Rak Thai Party were placed on the fast-track for promotion, although they did not dominate the combat forces like the old cliques from Chulachomklao Class 5 and Class 7 in the 1980s.

The bottom line was that Thaksin managed to place his military allies in such a way as to ensure his bargaining leverage, but not strongly enough to upset the balance of power in the armed forces, which might have backfired against his government.

After Thaksin won his second term last year, the opposition to his leadership began to gain momentum. In September, he went out of his way to override the list of military rotations drawn up by the Defence Council and pushed for his favourite officers.

In an unprecedented incident, the royal command for the annual reshuffle was stalled until the government amended some key appointments.

Following a compromise, Air Chief Marshal Chalit Pukbhasuk was the dark horse who secured the position of Air Force commander-in-chief.

Thaksin won a consolation prize with the appointment of his former classmate ACM Sukamphon Suwanthat as Air Force chief of staff.

He also had his way in naming Admiral Satirapan Keyanon as Navy commander-in-chief.

At the armed forces' helm, General Ruengroj Mahasaranont was promoted to the position of supreme commander after being handpicked by his predecessor, Gen Chaisit Shinawatra, who is Thaksin's cousin.

Thaksin engineered subtle changes in the Army to ensure the upper hand without attracting too much attention to his meddling.

He promoted Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin to the position of the Army commander-in-chief. Sonthi, a career soldier with a low profile, got his due reward based on merit. This top appointment helped to lessen the visibility of appointments to lesser but crucial posts.

Gen Pornchai Kranlert became the assistant Army commander while Lt-General Anupong Paochinda was elevated as commander of the 1st Army Region. Maj-General Prin Suwanthat filled the position of commander of the 1st Infantry Division.

All former classmates of Thaksin, Pornchai, Anupong and Prin occupy three combat positions proven to be indispensable in any military intervention. The three are seen as staunch allies of the embattled prime minister.

If and when a coup happens, either for or against Thaksin, the stand this trio takes will prove decisive to the outcome.

Pornchai is an artillery officer and has influence over the Army Air Defence Command, including its Anti-Aircraft Artillery Division. This division has a track record of staging both coups and counter-coups.

At the height of the street protests in February, Sonthi abruptly deployed his guards from the special warfare units in Lop Buri, replacing those from the artillery units.

It is noteworthy that Sonthi openly opposed the enforcement of a state of emergency while Pornchai kept mum on the matter. This power play occurred after Thaksin had made it known that he was ready to quell the protests by any means deemed necessary.

Anupong is an infantry officer with deep ties to infantry units in Bangkok as well as crack troops from the Queen's Guard of the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri.

Prin is from the infantry corps with extensive contacts with the military police from Army Circle 11 with jurisdiction over the capital.

In his present position, he also has the 4th Cavalry Battalion to dispatch armoured vehicles to secure Bangkok's strategic areas.

Last year, he spearheaded a veiled threat of military intervention in a bid to stop street protests organised by anti-Thaksin campaigner Sondhi Limthongkul.

The three Thaksin allies have a decisive say on infantry, artillery and cavalry units that would be needed to seize the capital.

As for other allies, Ruengroj could play a decisive role in securing communications and broadcast channels. Sukamphon could ensure aerial domination, while Satirapan would ensure Thaksin's safety because his house is located within naval jurisdiction.

Despite of the apparent advantage of Thaksin's Pre-Cadet Class 10 officers, the outcome of a military intervention is far from certain. This is because his allies do not have firm support from battalion commanders like in past coups.

Should the military card be played to end the political crisis, Thaksin's supporters and his opponents might not need to stage an outright coup.

For the government camp, military intervention may be deemed necessary only to the extent of allowing Thaksin to overcome political hurdles and contest the new election.

The opposition may have even less need for a coup as Thaksin could be removed from the scene by judicial due process.

The military intervention is likely to be more a show of force via unit mobilisations to force the other side to back down.

Thaksin's allies are expected make the first move to keep the government in power if the prime minister is faced with political demise. And a counter-move, if carried out in haste, might be the trigger to send the situation spiralling out of control.

The Nation