Hurricane experts predict a "very active" season in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico this year: 13 to 16 tropical storms, and four to six could become major hurricanes.
"There's no reason why New Orleans can't get hit by another major hurricane in 2006," said Stanley Goldenberg, a meteorologist in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane research division.

"Although no one can say with a high level of certainty, it is certainly possible that the basic steering pattern that shifted in 2004 to start to favor increased numbers of U.S. hurricane landfalls -- especially for Florida and the Gulf of Mexico region -- could continue for several more years," Goldenberg said.

Of the 13 to 16 storms, eight to 10 could become hurricanes during the season that officially begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, according to the report. And four to six could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher, said Conrad Lautenbacher, undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and a NOAA administrator.

"We're still in an active era," said Goldenberg, a member of the team that developed the forecast for the north Atlantic region. "But the fact is you don't need an active hurricane season to harm New Orleans."

During a slow year in 1992, Hurricane Andrew "came awfully close to the city," he said. The small but ferocious Cape Verde hurricane devastated areas along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and south-central Louisiana.

Katrina, too, was a Cape Verde hurricane, originally forming off the coast of Africa as a tropical depression, said Phil Grisby, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Slidell. Katrina made its way across the Atlantic as a depression before gaining strength in the Bahamas, he said.

Cape Verde hurricanes tend to have long lives, while those formed in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico usually don't last quite as long, Grisby said.

The federal government's forecast follows a similar one released in April by a Colorado State University team, which predicts 17 named storms in 2006, nine of which could become hurricanes.

Predictions, of course, are just that.

Last year's April forecast of the Colorado team and May prediction by NOAA were off quite a bit.

In April 2005, the university team predicted 13 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes. In May 2005, NOAA predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes.

The 2005 hurricane season ended with a record 28 tropical storms and 15 hurricanes. The previous record had been 21 tropical storms in a season, Grisby said.

William Gray, then the leader of the university team, updated his 2005 forecast in June to 15 tropical storms and eight hurricanes, Grisby said. And NOAA revised its 2005 forecast in August to 18 to 21 tropical storms and 9 to 11 hurricanes.

Although NOAA is not forecasting a repeat of last year's season, the potential for hurricanes striking the United States is high, Lautenbacher said at a news conference in Miami.

Many conditions affect the development and direction of hurricanes, including steering currents.

Warmer ocean water combined with lower wind shear, weaker easterly trade winds and a more favorable wind pattern in the midlevels of the atmosphere are factors that collectively will favor development of storms in greater numbers and to greater intensity, according to NOAA.

Warm water is the energy source for storms, while favorable wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's building cloud structure.

The Times-Picayune