Quote:Desperately seeking reason

With Thai politics at a tense and crucial stage, it was interesting to see Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont make a speech to the nation, broadcast on all television and radio stations. Gen Surayud looked resolute and spoke in a much more determined fashion than in previous, more relaxed interviews. Even as he spoke, protests were under way in Bangkok that may threaten both peace and the authorities. At least some of the demonstrators have now shown their true aim is both to topple the military regime, and to bring back the ousted Thaksin Shinawatra. So there was also a touch of desperation in both the timing of the premier's appearance, and in its content.

Most of that content was repetition. The premier again enumerated the reasons for the coup, and his determination to bring corrupt Thaksin-era officials to court. He again listed his ''four strategies'': transparency, punishment for criminal acts, combatting corruption and reform of the police. Unfortunately, eight months into his premiership, Gen Surayud was unable to list actual achievements. He could only ask again that the country take his promises seriously.

Having talked about the past and the future, the prime minister finally got around to the present. He called on the nation to obey the law, and to stop falling for false promises from corrupt politicians and policies. This is where the premier's logic partly broke down. It was also where he seemed a little desperate. He didn't mention that the mobs had broken through police lines to gather at the Army headquarters just hours earlier that Saturday night. But that clearly influenced what he said.

Gen Surayud noted the verdict of the Constitution Tribunal just 13 days ago. According to him, the entire country should accept the legal ruling as an illustration of rule of law. It is distinctly unfortunate that the premier neither raised nor answered the most important question of all about that verdict: How can a court justify a conviction of an offence committed before there was a law against it. And how can he still call this the Rule of Law? Even the judges of the Constitution Tribunal split on this sticky point. Neither in Thai nor international courts does Rule of Law allow for new laws that punish previous offences.

Gen Surayud listed all the possible crimes of Mr Thaksin. He noted that court cases already are pending against the deposed prime minister. Once again, he simply ignored the established Rule of Law that the accused must appear in person to hear and to answer such charges. If Mr Thaksin is forbidden or intimidated against returning to face the court, the authorities themselves are refusing to recognise the Rule of Law. Because he would not or could not justify such obvious violations of Rule of Law, Gen Surayud's speech was not persuasive in its call to respect it. Indeed, he ignored the very reason that the street mobs have grown into such a threat. The puny PTV rallies have quickly become a significant mob over this issue. Mob leaders have exploited what many feel, that the military and the interim government are exploiting _ even rewriting _ the law for their own benefit.

The Suan Dusit Poll says 30% of Bangkokians believe another coup will prevent December elections, while 34% believe political conflict will have the same effect. For his part, Gen Surayud deserves both praise and support for insisting that elections must proceed on schedule. Another coup would simply compound the errors of the military, which already is riding a tiger. A coup would possibly instigate great and ruinous events. Military officers and backers of another coup should consider their responsibilities to this country very carefully. At this point, there is no justification for street violence. Such violence would be a profoundly anti-democratic act. Gen Surayud is correct when he says that citizens should consider their actions carefully, and support worthy politicians and leaders. The government and its military backers seem to be moving towards return of democratic power to the people, on a previously agreed schedule.

But there must be no more wavering or dithering about elections. The public cannot accept any further delay to the return of a democratic government.

BKKPost

Quote:Thai army chief dismisses martial law rumor

BANGKOK, Thailand (Reuters) -- Thai army chief and coup leader Sonthi Boonyaratglin denied rumors on Thursday that he was about to fire his appointed prime minister or impose martial law in the capital, to the relief of nervous stock-market investors.

The benchmark SET index, which shed 2.2 percent on Wednesday amid speculation Sonthi was about to crack down on an anti-coup demonstration in Bangkok, regained more than one percent.

Sonthi, who led last September's bloodless military coup against democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, appeared on television to deny reports of an impending curfew or ructions within the military.

Another rumor sweeping through the jittery capital suggested that rogue elements in the Council for National Security (CNS), as the coup generals are called, would oust Sonthi in a counter-putsch.

Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, appointed after the coup to head an interim government, denied he was about to issue an emergency decree to force a few thousand pro-Thaksin protesters outside Bangkok's glittering Grand Palace to disperse.

"The rumors came during the current intense political activities, but I hope people know how to check these rumors and will not be panicked," Surayud told reporters.

"If the information doesn't come from state media -- either television or radio -- it is just rumor," he said.

Surayud, who can be fired at any time by Sonthi under the interim constitution, said he would only invoke emergency rule in the event of street violence.

Mercury rising

The temperature of Thailand's 18-month political crisis has risen several degrees following Monday's decision by the army-appointed Asset Examination Committee to freeze $1.5 billion of Thaksin assets in domestic bank accounts.

Bracing for a large pro-Thaksin rally in the capital planned for Saturday, police and the army were setting up road blocks to stop an influx of farmers from Thaksin strongholds in the north and northeast.

Police spokesman Colonel Piyapun Pingmuang said 1,800 officers and soldiers would be deployed, with the same number on standby in case trouble flared or protester numbers grew beyond the expected 10,000 people.

Although he is legally entitled to return from exile within 60 days to try to clear his name and regain his cash, the former telecoms tycoon appears to have heeded a warning from Sonthi that his life would be in danger if he did.

"Everyone is afraid to die," his lawyer, Noppadon Pattama, told Reuters. "Since the government and coup leaders said his safety could not be guaranteed, there is little chance he will return any time soon."

Suggesting that Thaksin might be walking into a trap if he came back, one of his supporters even reminded a rally on Tuesday of Philippine opposition leader Benigno Aquino, shot dead at Manila airport on his return from exile in 1983.

In Bangkok's febrile political atmosphere, and with economic growth forecasts being cut almost every month, anything is starting to look possible.

The main consumer confidence index fell in May for the seventh month in a row due to a combination of high oil prices, a strong baht and the political turmoil, which is preventing the government from acting to boost flagging growth.

Having ticked up after the coup in the hope military intervention might be the way out of a protracted political mess, the index is now at its lowest in more than five years.

At face value, the coup stemmed from middle-class street protests in 2006 against Thaksin's autocratic style and huge personal wealth, which his opponents say he wielded unfairly to secure unassailable support from the rural masses.

But analysts say it was as much about a royalist military and business elite removing a nouveau riche, ethnic Chinese businessman who had encroached too far on their traditional turf.