BANGKOK SUMMIT

Climate change meet will be 'fiery'

Third gathering of IPCC next week to debate ways to mitigate impacts

Some 2,000 top international scientists and officials from 180 countries will convene in Bangkok next week to finalise and launch their most recent report, "Mitigation of Climate Change".

They will lay out how the world can avert the worst impacts of rising global temperatures on life on earth - with technology, and more importantly, political will.

This will be the third and final volume of the scientists' latest assessment on climate change since the formation in 1988 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN panel to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding human-induced climate change.

The two previous reports rang alarm bells worldwide.

"Physical Science Basis" confirming a significantly warmer earth, was released in February in Paris, and "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" published earlier this month in Brussels, presented how life in almost every corner of the globe will be affected.

Reiterating that global warming is already upon us due to the increasing levels of carbons humans are putting into the atmosphere, the third report to be discussed in Bangkok from Monday to Thursday is slated to provide an up-to-date assessment on potential policies and technologies to reverse this trend.

The final report will be launched with a press conference at the United Nations building on Rajadamnoen Avenue on Friday.

Scientists estimate that greenhouse gases, which contribute to the world's rising temperatures - such as methane, nitrous oxide and, chiefly, carbon dioxide - have jumped by 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.

The two previous IPCC reports predicted a gloomy future in which unabated greenhouse emissions could drive global temperatures up by as much as six degrees Celsius by the end of this century.

Even a 2oC rise could subject up to two billion people to water shortages by 2050 and threaten extinction for 20 to 30 percent of the world's species, the IPCC said.

The new draft report says emissions can be cut below current levels if the world shifts away from carbon-heavy fuels like coal, embraces energy efficiency and significantly reduces deforestation.

However, the UN initiative won't be without controversy. Chula-longkorn University's Anond Snidvongs, head of the Southeast Asia START Regional Centre, and part of the review team for the draft report from Thailand, said international scientists and government reps were expected to engage in hot debates on the political aspects of climate change.

For example, Southeast Asia, he noted, did not appear as a region in the draft report. Southeast Asian countries were regrouped in either "South" or "East Asia".

Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam were listed as East Asian nations while Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore were grouped with India and other South Asian countries.

The grouping is important because population and GDP determine the emission quota for greenhouse gases, Anond said. Countries with higher GDP are expected to comply with tighter regulations.

Environmentalists also raised concerns about the draft report. Measures listed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector include nuclear power, hydropower and coal power plants with carbon capture and storage facilities. The panel also recommended genetically modified crops as sources of alternative fuel production.

Thai activists who have closely followed the IPCC climate change panels expressed fears that the Thai government might use the UN recommendations to promote and develop controversial energy technologies.

Wanun Permphibun, co-ordinator of Climate Action Network (CAN) Thailand, said the fact that the IPCC only focused on cutting carbon dioxide emissions made it neglect other social aspects and environmental impacts of alternate technologies.

"True, nuclear and hydro power do not generate CO2. But both energies have other points of concern, as we all know," she said.

CAN is a worldwide network of non-government organisations working to promote government, private sector and individual action to limit human-induced climate change to ecologically sustainable levels.

But Wanun said she appreciated the IPCC, as it was the only global body to seriously assess climate change with a scientific basis, and had tried to find out what could be done to alleviate the impact of this global phenomenon and cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Another activist, Tara Buakhamsri, climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Southeast Asia, urged the Thai government to select the best possible mitigation option for the country's socio-economic conditions.

For example, the government should gear its energy sector towards renewable sources readily available in the country such as bio-mass, solar and wind power instead of expensive, technologically sophisticated carbon capture and coal fired plants.

"Some measures are good for most developed countries but not developing countries. The Thai government should consider recommendations of the IPCC in the context of our environment," Tara said.

Prasertsook Chamornmarn, of the Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning (ONEP), did not disclose the content of the draft, saying it was secret as had not been finalised yet.

She said Thailand already had "standpoints" to negotiate at the forum, but refused to give details. The standpoints came from a collection of comments submitted to the ONEP by all commentators. Seven commentators would attend the meeting as representatives from Thailand, she said.

Nantiya Tangwisutijit

Pennapa Hongthong

The Nation

A lightning is seen as a summer storm hits Bangkok on Thursday evening. The heavy rain worsened the traffic congestion in the capital.

Photo by Korbphuk Phromrekha

The Nation

It seems Thailand has nothing to worry about from rising sea levels as Thailand is too far away from the melting ice sheets and glaciers to be affected. I kid you not.

The Nation.
Mon, April 23, 2007 : Last updated 21:34 pm (Thai local time)

Gulf sea level 'unlikely to rise'

Global warming will not cause sea levels to rise in the Gulf of Thailand, a leading hydrologist says.


Sea levels in the Gulf of Thailand are, in fact, falling slightly, Dr Suphat Vongvisessomjai said. Forecasts by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change that global warming would cause sea levels to rise had been misapplied to the Gulf of Thailand, he said, urging the public not to panic.


The phenomenon will vary according to latitude, explained Suphat, a former professor at the Asian Institute of Technology's water resources engineering and management programme.


Global warming will cause significant rises in sea level in areas in the high and middle latitudes only, he said. These areas will be affected by melting glaciers and ice sheets, while areas close to the Equator will not, he explained.


"The climate change panel's projection was wrongly accepted to apply to the Gulf of Thailand. We are too far from melting glaciers or ice sheets [for sea levels to rise]," Suphat said.


He cited data from the Navy's hydrographic department that showed average sea levels at Koh Lak in Prachuap Khiri Khan and Sattahip in Chon Buri were 0.6 centimetres and 0.3 centimetres lower, respectively, over the past 8.6 years than the 25-year average between 1963 and 1987.


He also cited research from a Japanese team. In 1993 researchers Tetsuo Yanagi and Tatsuya Akaki found that sea levels at southern locations in the Sea of Japan, the Korean Peninsula, Indochina and Malaysia had been falling for 40 years, he said.


Suphat said the sea level in the Andaman Sea might also be falling because it occupied the same latitudes as the Gulf of Thailand.


Suphat, now a water and environment expert at Team Consulting Engineering, said the land subsidence reported in many coastal areas of the gulf was the consequence of human activity, including over-consumption of ground water.


Erosion plays a crucial role in land emergence and subsidence, he said.


Although climate change would not cause sea levels to rise in the Gulf of Thailand, Suphat warned against ignoring concerns about the impact of rising global temperatures.


Careful analysis rather than panic is in order, he said.


"The climate change panel did not deceive us or exaggerate. Its scientific findings are just based on the environment of their scientists, most of whom live in Europe," he said.


Since 2001 the panel has been reporting global sea levels will rise between 11 and 28 centimetres by 2100, and that the rate is accelerating. The panel was set up in 1998 by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme.

Pennapa Hongthong


The Nation

Well maybe we should all go and stake out some beach front property about a half kilometer out...