STOPPAGE TIME

A breather from Thaksin... enjoy it while it lasts

At long last, a slight semblance of normalcy has been restored. And how we have missed that. It's great to see that political leaders are meeting for lunch to discuss a possible alliance amid rumours of back-stabbing and double-crossing; that the government all of a sudden wants to play the part of a tax Santa Claus, and that newspapers have already begun to speculate how many parliamentary seats each party is expected to win on October 15.

We can wake up and smell the coffee for a change. It's nice to be reminded by editors that there are things to worry about other than caretaker Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, like the resurfacing of bird flu and the increasingly alarming flooding in the highlands of Chiang Mai. And guess what, the hottest newsroom topic over the past few days was not whether the three ex-election commissioners would be granted bail, but rather how on earth one of the very few Academy Fantasia III contestants who actually possessed the ability to sing was voted out of the competition.

This is the calm before another storm, obviously, but we should enjoy it while it lasts. This peaceful break is precious, because the great national divide is still there and Thaksin is not going anywhere. Add the possibility of Chat Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa becoming the next prime minister, with Thaksin pulling the strings from behind the scenes, and we need all the rest we can get.

Let's sit back and prepare ourselves for the most peculiar, crucial, and educational election campaign in modern history. Don't believe any of the preaching from politicians about the virtues of harmony and reconciliation. For all our flaws and immaturity, we should be experienced enough to know that the next election is not about reuniting the country, but about camps of irreconcilable views reaffirming their stances and wearily giving democratic means to co-exist another try.

I don't want to make it look too scary, but this breathing period we're enjoying now is like when two opposing armies "pause" before they start throwing everything they have at each other for one last time. The feelings, sentiments and emotions will be strong on October 15, when Thaksin-haters and those who love him meet unconditionally at the ballot box. Worse news is that the war won't be over on that day unless either side scores a very decisive victory.

Thaksin has everything to lose, and opposition parties will no longer be protected by the benefits of a boycott, so expect the campaign to be very nasty. Assuming there is no major political "accident" in the meantime, our tired and split nation should go to the polls as scheduled.

After that there are three possible scenarios. In the first, a Thai Rak Thai landslide brings Thaksin back to power, along with all the troubles that brought this big political mess upon us in the first place. In the second, a fair-sized Thai Rak Thai victory leads to a shaky coalition, with either Banharn or a Thaksin nominee as prime minister. In the final scenario, a miraculous showing by the Democrat Party installs Abhisit Vejjajiva as Thailand's youngest ever leader.

Two and a half months may be a short time for an election campaign, but, come to think of it, not much is left to be done aside from installing a good referee. You have made up your mind, haven't you? My point is, so have those on the "other side". And nothing on earth can sway you or them.

When Thaksin complained on Monday that he didn't understand how a government commanding 377 MPs could have been overthrown by a bunch of hooligans, it all but confirmed that the national rift will last as long as he stays. He compared Thailand to a ship whose captain is being bullied, so much so that it is now in danger of sailing off course, hitting a rock and sinking. And in an apparent swipe at the judiciary, whose major decisions have not been in his political favour, he said that a country's judicial system that lacked credibility would ruin the economy.

So much for reconciliation. The statement surely must have touched millions of Thaksin's supporters here and abroad, whereas all his opponents can do is shake their heads in dismay. As for me, while we are enjoying this priceless break from cut-throat politics, I can only hope people are right when they refer to Thaksin as belonging to a rare species of politician. In a recurring nightmare of mine, however, he breeds very fast and his idea of democracy quickly becomes the widely accepted political bible of the world.

Tulsathit Taptim

The Nation