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Rising power of Hamas worries PA and Israel - cyrano - 06-14-2008 06:20 AM
By Tobias Buck in Gaza City
A small van passes by Alis garage on the outskirts of Gaza City. The loudspeakers on its roof blare out religious music and the latest news: another Hamas fighter has been killed by Israeli forces and residents are asked to attend his funeral.
The 40-year-old mechanic barely glances up as he reflects on the first anniversary of Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip. Like many Palestinians, Ali still finds it hard to fathom what happened in the weeks leading up to June 14 2007, when the Islamist group finally ousted forces loyal to the Palestinian Authority from the coastal territory.
The clashes, which left 161 gunmen and civilians dead, shattered the illusion of Palestinian unity and opened a deep wound in its society that has yet to heal. I was ashamed, recalls Ali, to find brothers fighting each other, to find religious people fighting each other.
But for the 1.5m Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip, the takeover also marked the beginning of a period of unprecedented misery, as Israel started blocking supplies of even basic goods to the Strip. Responding to rocket attacks from Gaza-based militants, Israel also launched military strikes on the territory that have killed more than 560 Palestinians, including many civilians, over the past 12 months.
In spite of the fierce pressure, Hamas has managed to consolidate its position. It has achieved total control of the military and political levers in the territory and has replaced most of the Strips judges and prosecutors with Hamas loyalists.
Now, says Mokhemra Abu Saada, a professor of political sciences at Gazas Al Azhar University, they are pushing even further. The only areas that are not under their control are the NGOs [non-governmental organisations], some universities and some minor media outlets. But now they are trying to take over the NGOs and the universities as well.
While some blame Hamas for the isolation, food shortages and power cuts that make their lives miserable, there are no signs it is losing its popular appeal. Palestinian polls are not always reliable, but the latest suggests Hamas would win about a third of votes if parliamentary elections were held now.
The rising power of Hamas poses a dilemma both to Israel and to the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli government, weakened by an embarrassing corruption investigation against Ehud Olmert, prime minister, oscillates between threatening a military offensive against Gaza one day and backing an Egyptian-led effort to broker a ceasefire the next. The sense of drift was evident this week when the Israeli cabinet agreed to exhaust the Egyptian track while ordering the army to prepare for action.
Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, this month called for unity between his Fatah party and Hamas. However, he knows that concrete steps towards that goal, for example the formation of a joint government, would almost certainly lead to the end of his peace talks with Israel and dismay his US and European backers.
Hamas, too, is under pressure. It has made no secret of its desire to agree a ceasefire with Israel. In a goodwill gesture, Hamas this week allowed an Israeli soldier it has held for two years to write a letter to his family. Hamas leaders were also quick to welcome Mr Abbas calls for unity.
According to a Gaza-based Hamas official who asked not to be identified, the takeover has diverted the groups attention from the broader goal of ending Israels hold over Palestine: Hamas is getting involved in very small points: how to ensure that people get fuel, how to ensure that patients can leave Gaza for treatment. But this is not our struggle.
He says that Hamas needs to refocus on a truce with Israel to alleviate the terrible situation in the Strip. However, even more moderate voices inside Hamas see little chance of a speedy resolution of the three-way stand-off between the Islamist group, Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
In spite of the despair in Gaza, local analysts believe the suffering is not sufficient to bring about a broader revolt against Hamas rule. Jaber Wishah, deputy director of the Gaza-based Palestinian Center for Human Rights, says the population could easily survive another year of Hamas rule and Israeli sanctions. We suffer a lot, he says. But the real miracle is that we are able to suffer even more.