Quote:Thai verdicts have realigned the political landscape: analyst
Channel NewsAsia

SINGAPORE: For more insight into the week's events, Channel NewsAsia's Augustine Anthuvan spoke to a Thai political analyst on the sidelines of the "Shangri-La Dialogue" in Singapore.

He asked Dr Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University for his thoughts on the Constitutional Tribunal's ruling.

"Well the verdict on the dissolution of Thai Rak Thai and the acquittal of the Democrat party - these two verdicts have realigned the political landscape. It has rearranged the political party scene and it has provided some clarification to the very murky ongoing state of Thai politics. But it has not resolved the political crisis in Thailand," said Dr Thitinan.

"What is likely to happen next now is a shift - a more level playing field in favour of the Democrat party because it has been acquitted of all charges. A lot of politicians will gather behind the Democrat party.

"The Democrat party has been given a huge political windfall, undeserved in my view because all of this fraud, the election law violations that led to this guilty verdict of Thai Rak Thai was instigated I must say by the boycott.

"The Democrat party boycotted the April 2006 election which led to the electoral fraud by Thai Rak Thai, which led to the annulment and so on and so on to the culmination with the coup and then this trial - so political party scene will be realigned. We will see whether Thai Rak Thai - now that it has been dissolved - whether it can regroup.

"If the Thai Rak Thai platform is resilient enough - we'll see a new party of the former Thai Rak Thai Mp's . It will be a new name, new leader because most of them have been banned for five years now. They will not involve Thaksin directly but they still have the platform, they still have the electorate they won in 2005/2006.

"And so I think they will be tempted to form a new party along similar lines with the same platform with many of the same individuals.

Q. But Dr Thitinan if I were to come in here - is it as simple as the Democrats are in and the Thai Rak Thai is out or are we going to see greater polarisation in Thailand?

"We've had more than two years now of polarisation in Thailand and its going to continue because now what has happened is that the very large electorate of Thai Rak Thai - the majority has been left out in the cold now. Their party has been eliminated - executed politically.

"I don't see any other parties trying to come out with a platform that accommodates or appeals to the needs and grievances of these voters under Thai Rak Thai. So Thai Rak Thai supporters now are in limbo. No party to vote for, the platform that they used to like is not there anymore because the party is gone.

"But the Democrats and the Chat Thai party and Mahachon party will gain some from this but they have to come up with a platform - something that appeals, something that attracts the vast majority of the electorate. So far they have not done that. They might not be able to.

"Thai Rak Thai had the first mover advantage. Thai Rak Thai discovered the 'Holy Grail' of Thai politics - which was that most people in Thailand are still poor. You cater to the poor, you provide them with an agenda and a platform that gives them opportunities, hopes and dreams - they'll vote for you. They'll vote for you again.

"That's what happened to Thai Rak Thai but Thai Rak Thai became so dominant, such a juggernaut, that it ran into opposition from established forces and in the end it did not last."

Q. Talking specifically on the ruling of the tribunal - there is - observers are saying there is a hint of interference from the Council for National Security. What's your take on that?

"The Constitutional Tribunal - the nine member comprises judges from Supreme Court and Administrative court. Unlike the past - they are all judges. In the past they had political scientists for example.

"The tribunal was setup after the coup by the military and so it’s seen as having the interest of the military or somehow implicitly driven by military preferences.

"On the other hand, if one has been keeping up with General Sonthi's comments. His comments for the past few months now have been suggestive of something like this. He's been saying that as far back as March that after May 30th - after the verdict - Thai politics will be clearer - and insinuating perhaps that some kind of decision like this would be in the offing.

"I think that it was almost a forgone conclusion that Thai Rak Thai was going to be dissolved. That's what the coup was all about. I think that the issue became - how many of the Thai Rak Thai executives would be banned for five years from politics. I think that most people did not expect 111 out of 119 to be banned. Most people expected a much smaller number".

Q. The dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai was unanimous by the tribunal but when it came to the vote to ban the executives - it was a vote of six to three. So isn't that again a hint as to it was not very conclusive from the tribunal's side?

"The election law violation was blatant. The evidence against Thai Rak Thai was strong, solid including video footage. So the Thai Rak Thai party dissolution was not surprising.

"What was stunning is the extent of the ban on the executives. Now this basically wipes out a large group of leading politicians of Thailand and hence the divided judgment. The tribunal - six to three - some dissented, I mean the three dissented and thought that the ban should be more limited allowing most of the Thai Rak Thai politicians to run in the next election.

"But now that we've had this verdict, basically Thai Rak Thai will not - all these executives now cannot run in the next election and it could kill the entire machinery".

Q. Now Thai Rak Thai's acting leader Chaturon Chaisang is making plans to meet up with Premier Surayud Chulanont on Monday to discuss the banning of the political parties. How do you see that unfolding?

"Acting Thai Rak Thai leader Chaturon was disappointed and I think he made a speech saying something to the effect that it was an unjust verdict. I think that they had calculated that the party dissolution was going to take place but they did not estimate, they did not think that the ban would be so extensive.

"So now I think Chaturon wants to get back in touch with his support bases in the countryside, he wants to talk to his people - the Thai Rak Thai supporters and voters. He wants to tell them why this is the case now and what's going to happen next to the party.

"And also he wants to perhaps start thinking about forming a new group to regroup under a new banner. He will be banned of course. But there are enough Thai Rak Thai executives who are not banned and they have many supporters. So maybe a new party regrouped."

Q. But the Thai Rak Thai party still has tremendous support among the rural poor especially in the North and the North East - which is their stronghold, their powerbase. And how is that going to affect how things are going to be unfolding over the next few weeks?

"Thailand is so polarised and divided…. the Democrat party did not win any seat in the North-East and the North. The last election that we should judge is the February 2005 election. In that election - Thai Rak Thai won 377 out of 500.

"The Democrat party won a few seats in Bangkok and mostly in the South. Thai Rak Thai of course won the North-East - the largest region and many in the North and most in Bangkok - 32 out of 37 in February 2005.

"So the Democrats somehow must become a nation wide party, they must penetrate with a saleable attractive platform in the North-East and the North. Otherwise, this confrontation, polarisation would deepen and it would continue for many months ahead".

Q. I understand the Metro Police Chief is placing a close watch on taxi drivers in Bangkok who largely support Thaksin. How is that going to affect the way things are unfolding in Bangkok right now?

"The urban poor - the rural masses but also the urban poor like Thaksin, like Thai Rak Thai. Because Thai Rak Thai policy platform gave them hopes and dreams and they also gave them opportunities and things that they could have.

"Many taxi drivers in Bangkok, several thousand got their taxis from these policy platforms - cheap taxis on loan. And they have been agitating and if you talk to any taxi driver in Bangkok - more likely that he will like Thaksin and he will think that this is an unfair verdict.

"So there will be more rumblings, more tensions, undercurrents underneath Thai politics. Right now the military is - they're having a clampdown. So we do not see open protests - very limited.

"But in the longer term - the physical suppression of dissent in conjunction with the mismanagement of the economy in the country would take the military to task. They will be hard pressed to keep up the physical suppression without providing better performance on the economy on government."

Q. And what about the business community - some reports are saying that they've welcomed the tribunal's decision. Again how do you see their response?

"The business community has been frustrated because this crisis has been almost two years now. And I think that they wanted to see some clear direction. The verdict against Thai Rak Thai at least provided a clearer path towards the referendum, towards the election.

"So they like it at the outset but I'm afraid that this crisis is not over and that there will be turbulence down the road and more risks down the road. So the business community will have a reprieve. This is a short period that things would have settled a little bit. But it's only a phase. We'll have a new phase and I think that the new phase will be much more volatile. So they better brace themselves".
Q. Dr Thitinan, you've been quoted as saying that the constitutional tribunal judges are no longer seen as impartial but political and the judiciary has become a major long term casualty of Thai politics. Could you expand on that?

"In less than six years - our law has been turned - diametrically opposed. In 2001, Thaksin was acquitted. He could do no wrong. He was acquitted in the constitution court for his assets concealment trial by an eight to seven count.

"Less than six years later - he could do no right. Charges are being filed against him. Corruption cases are mounting and Thai Rak Thai has been disbanded now by the tribunal.

"So it appears as though the law in Thailand is more about political configurations and power dynamics rather than justice. Justice just depends on who has the power ".
Q. Now I understand the next major hurdle will be the referendum on the new constitution in September - again your thoughts?

"With the political realignment taking place now after the verdict - the parties, the military and the interim government will want to move straight ahead to the referendum and to the election. They want to even move up the election I think.

"But much more turbulent ahead - I think that unless they can manage to bring the Thai Rak Thai supporters and voters on side - they have to somehow integrate them, incorporate them into this new post verdict environment.

"Otherwise the 14 million Thai Rak Thai supporters will feel alienated and will agitate. It will be difficult to deal with that. It will be very difficult for the military unless they want to appear increasingly like an open military dictatorship.

"So if they want to avoid that, somehow the Thai Rak Thai supporters have to be integrated into the fold. And this is something that is not taking place. I don't see any sign of it. The parties do not have a platform that appeals to these voters.
"The military has been not courting them at all nor has the interim government. This is a danger for Thailand in the long term. What happens to the Thai Rak Thai supporters. Unless they can be brought in, they are unlikely to go home quietly".

Q. The assets examination committee - they're pressing charges against Thaksin and his wife over a controversial land purchase issue. How do you see that unfolding?

"The charges against him since the coup have been piling up. Initially, they were slow. But now I think the military after several months figured that they had to really step it up. Hence the assets examination committee's charges on tax evasion, land acquisition deal.

"And this could implicate Thaksin further. He is more or less at this time finished politically. He's been banned for five years from politics. His party is eliminated now. So it will be difficult for him to re-enter politics. Although I think that he will come back to Thailand.

"He will remain influential in Thai politics - he could be a 'King maker' of sorts in the near future. And if he wants to go for broke - I don't know what the game plan is. But he knows that and this is the fundamental driving logic of the entire crisis.

"Thaksin is trying to install a new Thailand. And this new Thailand in 2007 that he tried to construct ran into the establishment from the 1980s, 1990s. And now you know the establishment - comprising the military, the bureaucracy, the monarchy - have reasserted themselves and overthrown Thaksin.
"Whether they can maintain Thailand like it was in the 1980's, 1990's with their role at the apex of Thai society - in this day and age - I'm not so sure. I think that the forces of history may not be on their side.

"Unless they make some adjustments, concessions and reforms - the forces of history make go against them and this is what Thaksin and his people stood for. The corruption cases against him was one thing. I think they seem unmistakable to me.

"But the attempt to redistribute income, give rural people, poor people hopes and dreams and opportunities - that should be continued. Thailand now is different than it was 25 years ago.

"People have had a taste of what they could have. A taste of a better life - maybe in a populist way, patronising way under Thaksin. But nonetheless their needs and grievances were addressed.

"This is a new Thailand. I think that the establishment has to realise that. Otherwise the ongoing tensions will mount and we will see more confrontation and perhaps violence".

Q. Some sort of welfare has to be addressed as far as the poor are concerned because the opposition to Thaksin is saying - look you can't sustain this in the long term. They're just trying to buy votes in that sense. You think something like that should be addressed?

"In a sense Thaksin did. He had his populist policy platform to buy votes, to win power. And on the way also committed human rights violations, abuses of power, corruption, cronyism on the one hand.

"But on the other hand - he did see - he and his people - see an agenda for the Thai people. I mean most Thai people are still poor - this is Thailand's dirty secret that they have exposed. And Thailand will never be the same for that.

"And I think that this is really about fundamental dialectical conflict between two orders. One from the recent past - 1980's, 1990's and one for the 21st century. And its a titanic struggle between the two.

"I think that the new powers that be want to sort of bring Thailand back to pre-Thaksin - 1990's, 1980's - bureaucracy, monarchy, military as supreme - paramount in Thailand.

"But you know this is the age of globalization, it would be best to combine the two somehow to get rid of the corruption. To have morality and ethics in politics. But also to give more focus to the people, to share the pie more I think.

"The Bangkok elite have been seen and felt by many people I think that they've been out of touch - that they want to hog the pie, not sharing enough. And Thaksin was the one who came in and put a hammer to that system and has been thrown out in the process. He also got himself thrown out partly because he left a long trail of personal flaws and misjudgments and abuses of power".

Q. You've talked about the role of the bureaucracy, the elite and the military. What about the role of the palace in all of this?

"We have now after the coup, the reassertion of establishment forces. And the 'holy Trinity' of Thai politics and how Thailand is governed and run has always been this trinity of the military, bureaucracy and monarchy - they've won the day.

"I just don't think that they realise the Thailand that they're dealing with. This is why we have a lot of policy confusion, lack of policy achievements and a sense of murkiness in economic management, government, the south has not improved.

"So Thaksin was just the opposite. He knew how to get things done. But he was also hounded by corruption allegations. The new people in power do not seem to be very efficient in getting things done. They are less corrupt, seen as less corrupt.

"So this is their challenge. To have some moral authority, integrity but also they have to know how to get things done and deliver. If they don't deliver, people will be disaffected, disenchanted and tensions - anti-coup, anti-military, anti-government tensions and protests will build. And it’s not going to end pleasantly".

Q. Again any final thoughts - there is the meeting of the acting Thai Rak Thai chief with Prime Minister Surayud on Monday and the constitutional reforms due in September, the lifting of the ban on political parties and hopefully elections in December - what you think is critical over the next few weeks?

"If all goes well, the draft constitution, the first draft has been criticised extensively. If they make enough amendments - they can go to referendum. I just don't think the referendum will pass because now a lot of people are disaffected. No one is happy in Thailand.
"And with the prospect of a failed referendum, the military may just derail the draft in the assembly and then pick a past constitution because the outcome is the same for them.

"And then you know with a military-preferred past constitution - people will protest likely and we may not get to the election day and if we do get to the election day, there is a problem of - question of legitimacy, question of inclusiveness, question of fairness of the political party system.

"These Thai Rak Thai supporters - the vast majority of the Thai electorate - they are the independent variable here. If they are not addressed and accommodated adequately - we are likely to see much more trouble ahead". - CNA/yy