Daily Talk Forum

Britain's Brown eyes top job, but voters unconvinced

London - British Chancellor Gordon Brown delivers what may well be his last budget Wednesday with his long-held ambition of becoming prime minister virtually in his grasp -- but voters remain unconvinced.

Both the British public and members of his Labour Party seem as far as ever from showing enthusiasm for the Iron Chancellor, despite prolonged efforts to shed his image as a dour, workaholic Scotsman.

A new poll on the eve of his likely budget swansong confirmed that voters are distinctly unenthused, with young, modernizing opposition Tory leader David Cameron way ahead according to the latest figures.

An ICM survey for Tuesday's Guardian put support for a Brown-led Labour government at just 28 per cent, against 43 per cent for a Cameron-led Conservative administration.

The survey's findings underscore a long negative trend.

Since December 2005, when Cameron became leader of the Conservatives, which he has modernised and repositioned at the political centre, some 20 polls have predicted defeat for Labour under the austere Brown against the jovial Cameron.

Only two surveys, at the beginning of last year, have put the two men on equal footing.

Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has headed the Labour Party since July 1994, will have spent 10 years at 10 Downing Street on May 1. On Tuesday, the Labour leadership was due to set out the procedures for replacing him.

Blair's departure will indeed not trigger general elections as the new leader of the party that holds a decisive majority in parliament will automatically become prime minister.

Brown has awaited this moment since 1994, the date of a reported deal that has never materialized, under which Blair would cede the reigns of power to Brown after a few years in Downing Street.

While Brown's allies called him the most successful chancellor for a generation, presiding over growth with low inflation and falling unemployment, his critics have seen him for years as a schemer responsible for in-fighting.

Such criticism came to the fore again last September when Brown was accused of having orchestrated a coup by party rebels that forced Blair to pledge publicly that he would resign within a year.

He denied the charges, but doubts about Brown do not go away. One former cabinet colleague dubbed him a "control freak," while a serving minister forecast that voters would soon hanker for the return of Blair.

Brown is portrayed by his allies as a hard-working man of substance who will command the respect of his party and nation; he is a master of detail rather than a spinmeister.

Such a portrayal is a dig at Cameron and possibly Blair as well.

To loosen up his image, Brown, the son of a Presbyterian minister, has taken to flashing a smile and talking about his personal life, while also trying to defuse concerns among English voters about his Scottish background.

During a party speech last September, Brown said he acquired from his parents "an enduring set of values that put the needs and concerns of the British people first."

Concern over Brown's unexciting image seeps deep within the ruling Labour party.

In a survey early this month, some 73 per cent of Labour members supported an election contest within the party to succeed Blair, when he finally announces the exact date of his departure.

Labour's executive body was due to meet Tuesday to decide on the timetable for the party's leadership transition.

According to the British media, Blair might name the date on May 4 or 5, with most commentators forecasting he will leave office at the end of June or in July.

The Nation

Big boost for Brown's bid to become British PM

LONDON - Gordon Brown was handed a huge boost Sunday in his bid to become Britain's next prime minister when the only man many MPs believed could stop him said Brown would get his support.

Several allies of Prime Minister Tony Blair thought Environment Secretary David Miliband was the only one among them with a chance of beating finance minister Brown in the battle to become leader of the governing centre-left Labour Party -- and therefore British premier.

But Miliband, who has consistently said he would not stand in the forthcoming contest, definitively ruled himself out and pledged to vote for red-hot favourite Brown.

However, he laid down a series of policy areas where he expects Brown to develop Blair's legacy. The Labour leader since 1994, Blair is expected to step down within the coming weeks, after 10 years as prime minister.

"I will vote for Gordon Brown to lead Labour's drive," Miliband wrote in The Observer newspaper.

"I have watched him and worked with him for nearly 20 years. He has in the last 10 years done great things for living standards; no-one is better qualified to lead across a wider canvas.

"I said three years ago that I would not be a candidate for the leadership. I meant it and have not wavered from that view.

"I certainly am not in the business of waiting to pounce on local or Scottish and Welsh election results to change my mind."

Blair is expected to step down shortly after the May 3 elections to the Scottish Parliament, the Welsh Assembly and English local councils, triggering a seven-week campaign to select and install a successor.

Opinion polls indicate Labour could face a battering.

Miliband demanded that Brown weld the "good things about New Labour, from a strong economy to investment in public services" with a "new emphasis on the power of individuals to shape their own lives."

Miliband's announcement does not mean for certain that Chancellor of the Exchequer Brown will not face a Blair loyalist.

Former education secretary Charles Clarke is a fierce critic determined not to see Brown seize the crown, and former health secretary Alan Milburn is right beside him.

Tough-talking Home Secretary John Reid could be the Blairite to stand.

In an interview to be broadcast Sunday on GMTV television, Reid said only: "By saying that I won't discuss it, by definition you don't rule in or out.

"I'm sure the prime minister will make his views more specific, and when he does that, we will all have the chance to make sure that we express our views."

Brown, 56, told Saturday's Daily Mail newspaper that he expected a leadership battle with rival candidates, urging challengers to come forward.

But the Scot hinted that he would quit politics altogether if he felt he could no longer make a difference.

"I just say to people that if they want to stand, then please feel free to do so, because I'm ready to put my views and experience to the test," he said.

Fringe left-wingers John McDonnell and Michael Meacher intend to stand, but they may not be able to muster the 44 nominations needed from fellow Labour MPs.

Former environment minister Meacher said he had the backing of 25 MPs so far and expected to gain more from the 15 who are supporting McDonnell.

"The overwhelming majority of those will switch to me if John realises he can't make it and drops out," Meacher told The Sunday Telegraph newspaper.

Meacher said he was "sick and angry" over the "staggering degree of inequality" in Blair's Britain.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes had Brown at 1-10, followed by Miliband at 11-2, Reid at 20-1, then Milburn and Education Secretary Alan Johnson, both at 33-1 to become Labour's next leader.

Agence France-Presse

I reckon it`s Brown`s for the taking. There doesn`t seem to be much real opposition as an alternative.

Gordon Brown: control freak or misunderstood heavyweight?

London - His critics call him "Stalinist," while his supporters say he is a misunderstood political heavyweight. Now the real Gordon Brown is about to step forward, after a decade waiting in the wings.

Brown, who has been Prime Minister Tony Blair's chancellor since the pair swept New Labour to power in 1997, is finally expected to succeed him in 10 Downing Street following Blair's resignation announcement Thursday.

It is a goal that has been a long time coming for Brown, 56, who has been a lawmaker for nearly a quarter-century and Britain's longest serving finance minister without interruption.

During his 10 years in office, he has gained a reputation as a workaholic, and though seen as dour and uncharismatic in public, he is reputed to be personable in private.

The son of a Presbyterian minister, Brown was always bright, started university in Edinburgh at just 16, and after gaining a first-class degree in history, he went on to receive a doctorate.

He forged links with the Labour Party early in life, offering to canvas for them in a by-election when he was 12, and joined the party officially at 18.

He was elected to represent Dunfermline East in 1983 -- the same year Blair became an MP -- and was named Labour's finance spokesman in 1992, after joining the shadow cabinet in 1987.

Following the death of then Labour leader John Smith in 1994, a popular legend relates that Brown and Blair made a deal in a north London restaurant whereby Brown would back Blair's candidacy, and Blair would let his colleague step into the top job as little as four years into a Labour government.

According to a biography by Robert Peston, Blair repeatedly promised Brown in 2004 that he would step down so that Brown could lead Labour, only to change his mind.

Brown reportedly then told Blair: "There is nothing you could ever say to me now that I could ever believe."

Since entering government, the relationship between the pair -- who were good friends and shared an office when they entered parliament -- has often appeared tenuous and while each has praised the other, tensions are often not far from the surface.

Brown was alleged to be the mastermind of an attempted political "coup" last September when eight junior members of government resigned in a matter of days, calling for Blair to step down -- he denies the charge.

He is struggling in polls that often show him trailing the main opposition Conservative Party leader David Cameron by double digits, and his credibility on managing the economy has been drawn into question by recent scandals.

His detractors lament what they say is his controlling nature, with former cabinet minister Charles Clarke describing him as a "control freak" last year, while his former head of staff recently called him "Stalinist."

So-called Brownites hit back, however, pointing to his decision to give the Bank of England independent control over monetary police in 1997, and his campaign to get rich countries to forgive developing country debt as evidence of both his willingness to cede control, and his ethics.

The chancellor is reportedly more of an Atlanticist than a Europhile -- while Blair wanted to lead Britain into the euro, Brown effectively vetoed the decision.

On the personal front, Brown has suffered more than his share of pain: in January 2002, his first child Jennifer was born prematurely and died 10 days after her birth.

He has since had two boys, though the second was diagnosed with cystic fibrosis in November, aged just four months.

Through it all, he has steered Britain to an unprecedented era of sustained growth, high employment and low interest rates, and after a decade playing second fiddle, Brown remains the overwhelming favourite to succeed Blair.

It has been a long time coming, but he may soon be able to step out of the shadows, and into the limelight.

Agence France Presse